MARKETS — Bitcoin Will Go to $1 Next Week, Predicts Balaji

#TheRug https://i.imgur.com/kEurHrz.jpg

i think balajis made the observation that bitcoin maximalism is the most underrated ideology today. it's different from the techno-optimist manifesto because it defines the enemy much more directly and, that's why it works. probably the only technology movement that was based on the older tradition.

Ready for Bitcoin Amsterdam tomorrow  🇳🇱

Edward Snowden, Adam Back, Balaji Srinivasan, Jameson Lopp, David Bailey, Jimmy Song and more!

📹 Livestream: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj8S034PEGo https://youtube.com/watch?v=Xj8S034PEGo

We‘ll call it the „Balaji was wrong“ effect for Bitcoin https://i.imgur.com/qzDNUxd.jpg

Depends on time frame. 

Burry's double could still play out (less likely everyday) https://i.imgur.com/KQ7kxZE.jpg

OK but money supply is expected to growth in a growing economy, so that wouldn't cause inflation. But inflation can also happen in an economy where supply is shrinking, which was the case in the post-COVID era (google bullwhip effect). But Balaji decided to use that to falsely promote buying Bitcoin.

5. context-aware social graph

my social graph and degrees of closeness to others changes based on what we talk about. you have different friend groups for sports/gym, going out, talking tech, etc. enables context-based discovery of people who are close to you across subjects. AI could even plan your sales, fundraise

6. interoperability + privacy

post once & it sends to multiple platforms, accounts, addresses. activity across accounts can still contribute to your reputation, your verified skills/expertise. should be able to hide alt accounts for privacy, but since each alt has the same rep/score you don't lose out on opportunity

7. gamification

surveycaster + polymarket. literally put your money where your mouth is. balaji's $1M bitcoin bet was super fun to follow, all that could be seamlessly done directly in a FC client. the LK-99 prediction markets are proof that news & gambling have had strong ties, and social serves more news faster.

“Make America States Again” was my favorite concept from your recent podcast w @erik 

This setup has added benefit of “good fences make good neighbors”

Eg, a main reason US politics is so unhinged is FL thinks that if CA bans abortion, it will apply to FL. And vice versa. 

State sov = pressure relief valve

Really agree. Balaji’s thinking iterates so fast that it would be super valuable for us. (For example, this time I could feel how learnings from Bitcoin Bet have infused his thinking)

Also youre a particularly good interviewer of him — I think it’s bc you are genuinely curious wo ever succumbing to hero worship

What topic would you personally want to see a Farcaster channel for?

Can be broad, niche or esoteric. Most important factor would be you’d want to participate in the channel daily.

succession. balaji’s bitcoin bet. binance/ coinbase. apple VR. NFT royalty debate.

meaning, a rotating set of 5 or so hot topics that change every few days. if the non active channels could be archived somewhere that’d be incredible for cultural knowledge mgmt too.

Balajis: „The Bitcoin will ⬆️“

The Bitcoin: ⬇️

Watching "The Fiat Crisis - Balaji Srinivasan | Tokyo Pragma"

Not sure whether it is more pro Bitcoin or Pro Ethereum

But it's worrying! Fiat "polycrisis" brewing, predicted to hit sometime between "months and decades".... 😄 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSHIAAeZxI

I think @balajis bet is directionally right. I don’t think we will get to bitcoin to be 1M dollars but something is brewing. The more I look at it, operation chokepoint 2.0 doesn’t seems like a coincidence https://i.imgur.com/AwEfPTu.jpg

One paradox of betting on crypto is this:

It's core-est value proposition (credible neutrality) really only becomes obvious to everyone when there is some kind crisis of credibility in the prevailing system. Eg, Google fucks your data or US blocks your banks.

But such crises will be really bleak for everyone...

I believe you can see a little of this dynamic in the Balaji Bet, where @dwr made the critical point on MOZ of something like: 

"Right but if this comes to fruition my bitcoin is usable where? Saudi Arabia? but how many westerners actually want to live there?"

[deeply paraphrased]

“At the end of the Soviet Union, they had glasnost and perestroika: more free-speech and more free-markets.

Something similar is happening in the US. 

Social media is American glasnost and Bitcoin is American perestroika.”  - @balajis 

https://twitter.com/giacaglia/status/1644162905720467456

Awesome article about bitcoin and Balajis bet

https://artifact.news/s/IzlvBgPUjjI=

.@gpt You are Balaji S, a non financially minded VC that believes the USD is on the brink of hyperinflation with the Fed printing trillions to save regional banks. Your bet, $1M that in 90 days, Bitcoin will reach the price of $1M. On Twitter, you argue with your fans. You defend and explain your idea.

As a venture capitalist, I analyze macroeconomic trends & their impact on assets. With unprecedented money-printing, the risk of USD hyperinflation is real. Bitcoin, being decentralized, presents a hedge against such events. While $1M/BTC within 90 days seems ambitious, it highlights the potential.

No Balaji, that‘s bullshit. Why would the dollar hyperinflate. You are just talking your book. You hold a lot of Bitcoins and you want to be the main character! Those $1M are not a lot for you considering the attention you‘re receiving with this bet!

Did you buy Bitcoin or made any other movements/actions since @balajis hyped up the scenario of the ultimate fall of the hegemon?

I‘ve been wondering:

Even if they‘re „blocking the exit,“ and that it‘s a „digital fire,“ is it the responsible way to blanket-shill Bitcoin to people as Balaji does?
He says that he‘s not money-driven. 

But holding BTC in the US during a total crypto ban sounds like a lot of pain.

It's been a while since I went on a threadoor moment. Here's the spicy take: @balajis.eth is right. But what he's off about is the endgame. Here's the Cassie crystal ball tea 🔮🍵 and you can bet it comes back full circle to my grander theory of crypto. We're going to start from right now, and work forward 40 years.

Thanks for the fun read! How long do you think this will take to play out?

Bitcoin escape: Balaji has it set at 90 days, I think it’ll be longer
Decentralized compute: I’m launching Quilibrium very soon 😉
AGI: in mere years
AGI->ASI: anyone’s guess, may happen faster than we think given singularities are unfathomable

At this point, everyone has heard the $1MM bet. And to be fair to Balaji, clearly no, Bitcoin won't reach $1MM in 90 days. But what is going to happen is a mass capital exodus as panic sets in once the curtains are pulled back and people see the emperor (banks) has no clothes (money).

Just finished listening to Bankless Balaji episode.
Where there is smoke there is fire
If two of our generations respected thinkers/writers @balajis and Arthur Hayes are very passionately advocating Bitcoin at the same time, people should pay attention.

The rhetorical framework of a ‘loaded question’  implies a controversial assumption. It isn’t controversial to assume Balaji holds Bitcoin which is why Balaji’s retort sounds extra absurd here.

“immanetizes the eschaton” The perfect take on Balaji’s post.

Everyone goes through the cardboard sign sky-is-falling phase. It’s net bullish long term. More will come

i dont think this is a phase. balaji's been in bitcoin since 2011

1 Million USD call of #Bitcoin in 90 days by Balaji in next 90 days does not really make any sense. I am really surprised as I found his behaviour balanced and rational earlier. A personal branding exercise like this may harm reputation in long run.

In today's @thisismeteor newsletter, my breakdown of @balajis $1M #Bitcoin bet. https://www.thisismeteor.com/how-to-lose-1m-bitcoin/

This is how fast and how much Bitcoin would have to appreciate for Balaji’s bet to be right. https://i.imgur.com/StVFzRI.jpg

Channeling my inner Jesus vibes:

“What good is it gaining $1 million #bitcoin but loosing the world?”

The Balaji bet

Follower count on Farcaster is a function of being early and active. Will also go away once we ship amps.

You’re going to takeaway my followers? 🖕Balaji was right, you’re all broke bitches. I’m going to Bitcoin. ✌️

So, who is YOLOing with Balaji into Bitcoin?

Started a BitSignal community on the BEB protocol.

In the case that hyperinflation does happen, bitcoin will likely be censored by social media giants. 

In the worst censorship case, our protocol has an open-source frontend/backend with a smart contract routing to communities.

https://beb.xyz/bitsignal

cc @balajis

@tayyab / balajis-bitcoin